Dont worry about what they call you. Andrew Breitbart |readmore, the worlds most viewed climate website A simple extended coin toss will show you that the error at the end of a very long time will be significantly different to zero in almost all cases. The mid game enterprising. You can continue to discuss whatever you want and so can anyone else. May this important book lead us back to an open scientific debate without political pressure. Consequently,anyreduction in the CO2content of the atmosphere will negatively impact the current state of nature, reducing not only the growth of plants, but other benefits brought about by higher CO2concentrations. We both fail at times. . . I am also of the opinion that natural causes do not completely explain the amount of warming observed this late in the Holocene. E. Tmean.earth= [ (1-a) So (*N*cp) /4 ] (K) or Nf3 if Kh2 then Qh3 Learn how NASA Earth observations are helping water resource managers more accurately plan conservation efforts. Another group of scientists would disagree with Schmidt. Their claims are not supported by the evidence they present. NASA, with its Eyes on the Earth and wealth of knowledge on Earths climate, is one of the worlds experts in climate science.NASAs role is to provide the robust scientific data needed to understand climate change. L. There is no survey or study showing consensus on any of the most important scientific issues in the climate change debate. Check who wrote it. I think you are right in evoking philosophy of science, but perhaps not for the epistemological reasons you mention. Numbers count that what they are for. And did they have opinions on the factors involved with those two periods causing the changes in temperatures. These measurement errors are randomly negative and positive and of different magnitudes. If the law that gives me my mineral rights for the natural gas they are extracting thousands of feet under my property I guess I should be compensated for my geothermal resources too. Im curious, of those scientists who you have talked to, have they shared their views about whether the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period were global? Weather Satellite Centerwrote the first edition of Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warmings Unfinished Debate. Tmean = [ (1-a) S (*N*cp) /4 ] (K) Climate science in the UK began with Hubert Lamb, who created the CRU at UEA. The Day of the Dead isn't Halloween. Let us have a show of hands. We should follow the science. https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2022/09/18/the-role-of-mathematical-modelling/#comment-211704, Joshua | September 29, 2022 at 8:52 pm | Yet its critical to saying anything beyond simpletons fare, which this article tries to pass off as well known. How to get it through to you? [103] In 2018, global emissions of human-produced CO2 were about 37 billion tons. 2015; meanwhile, 14% of Americans deny climate change is happening. This book is a great reminder that the data are mixed at best. We can reduce nuclear waste today by using a new, more efficient, fuel composition. https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1574147792049610752, Pingback: ExxonKnew Is PR and Politics in Search of A Shakedown, Pingback: Researcher Questions Extent of Carbon Dioxides Climate Effect - True USA, Pingback: Researchers ask about the extent of carbon dioxides climate impact Trend News Securykid, Pingback: Researcher Questions Extent of Carbon Dioxides Climate Effect Million Voices USA, Pingback: Researcher Questions Extent Of Climate Effect Of Carbon Dioxide - News001, Pingback: Glibertarians | Saturday Morning Fall Guy Links, Pingback: Researcher Questions Extent of Carbon Dioxides Climate Effect NO BLUE/RED DAWN, It now takes only three minutes to read the new Barrons, Hot Talk, Cold Science is an important, comprehensive, timely, and thorough book. A proud member of RAILS. Both these studies are ridiculous, they study correlations between changes in temperature and changes in a trace gas, and ignore any other factor that could influence climate change. This new edition of Hot Talk, Cold Science is a timely contribution in a world where scientifically-illiterate policymakers are pushing immediate implementation of policies that could destroy the economies of developed nations and leave many developing nations in poverty, while unfairly benefiting certain nations, like China, that are willing to exploit the situation. Its the source of a lot of global variability in temperature, hydrology and biology. His conclusions should give us all a modest sense of gentle calmnessthat same calmness he carried to the end of his days. 21Nxg5 Bd7 22 Qe1 0-0-0 22 Ka1 Bc5 23Na4 Ba7 Over the years and despite all the invectives poured upon him by the alarmists, Dr. Singer has stood his ground for scientific integrity and adherence to the scientific method. 179 countries reached a binding agreement without US participation. ProCon.org is the institutional or organization author for all ProCon.org pages. Can you assume an exponent of exactly 2 to a million places in its derivation, or is it really fractal and not quite 2? A study by A Wittmann in 1978 showed that there was something wrong in the disagreement between measurements and calculated values. The climate debate has been going on for over 40 years, with millions of exchanges. Dr. Singer forecasts sea level rise in the range of 18 to 20 centimeters by 2100. procon@eb.com, 2022 Encyclopaedia Britannica, Inc. How predictable is the Earth system is yet to be seen. Got that Geoff? The ancient measurements of obliquity are an excellent one. Or all different years? While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on global climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century." Other human activities include agriculture and changes in land-use patterns. Humanity will not have a second chance for a long while. I remain very concerned that the bulk of the environmental movement continues to ignore so many solvable issues while engendering global hyper-anxiety, particularly in the young generation, over a climate crisis that does not exist. In an article published late last year, Astrobiology Magazine reported on such a prediction: Scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory say that the current melting of ice in Greenland is already causing the tilt to change at a rate of approximately 2.6 centimeters each year. In a survey of 2,130 people, the report found that there is a progressive decrease in the number of people who think there is solid evidence of global warming and an increase in the number who think there is no solid evidence. ProCon.org. Have others done similar modelling or related modelling that you are aware of and care to share here? [94] The following five years were even warmer as 2016 set the record for hottest year ever and global average temperatures in 2019 were the second-hottest as of Mar. There is no error about a random error other than the actual value does not agree with the previous and post observations. When it comes to the patterns of the weather, there is really nothing except the vague assertion that every time I run the model, I get a realistic looking climate. This is an entirely subjective judgment. What do you believe Europe will rely upon in the event of Russian gas cut off? Six in ten surveyed (62%) believe that global warming is being caused by humans, while 23% attribute it to natural changes in the environment. [192], The groups 2018 report showed that 95% of liberal Democrats think global warming is happening and 84% think it is caused by humans. Earth has a lower atmosphere as not enough gases are produced to go higher out. I entered this thread because my comments regarding Nics pandemic modeling were mentioned, and because I was besmirched, and because of Judiths shameful dismissal of NIcs obviously flawed treatment of uncertainties when building toy mathematical models of complex phenomena. Maybe just switch out the containment vessel for a new one. It happened with the discovery of glaciations, Milankovitch theory, or continental drift. . But he doesnt know what hes talking about either. By While a natural event such as this could bring about major changes to the climate, some scientists are warning that there is a possibility for reverse feedback. Sir Arthur C. Clarke, scientist and author, 2001: A Space Odyssey, The scientific urge to consensus on the greenhouse issue tends to compromise away dissent. Ultra deep geothermal seems to be in the same category as fusion energy where the physics get extreme but so does the lure of an endless energy supply. Im skeptical that they effectively controlled for the myriad potential confounds, but a study where they attempt to do that is informative. For example, one wonders how many papers would not have been printed if the authors had shown proper estimations of uncertainty about their data. Singers book ends with a twist, typical of this analytical, observant, and creative mind: Perhaps we should be more worried about future cooling than warmingpossibly a Little Ice Age like the one the world experienced, with great hardship, from 1400 to 1850. By separating rhetoric from reality, this well-timed release allows readers to better detect and think beyond the hyperbole and propaganda all-too-common in media coverage of this heated subject. Leaving aside energy from exploiting local topography, there are only two reliable sources of energy, fossil fuels and nuclear. Knowing how selfless Fred has been for the past 25 years, I think this is Freds quiet way to pay final tribute to those very many of us who believe that science must come first before playing a secondary role to public bullying and political blackmailing. If solar activity and cloud cover are the two main drivers can you give us figures showing a decrease in the former and an increase in the latter these last 3 years world wide which might indicate a pause is due, happening or has happened? Another important prerequisite to intelligent discussion may be the simple understanding that computer programs (no matter how big and how complex) are NOT science. If you do not understand past natural climate change, what chance do you have of putting recent climate change, possibly affected by man, into context?. An ongoing debate (May 26, 2021) https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.12126. That energy would affect the amount of wheat produced, which would affect the price. For any substantial deviation of the TSI-forced surface temperature it will require a massive atmosphere. The modelers and scientists know that their models overheat and have other problems, yet CMIP6 models run even hotter than CMIP5. I only reply to those who seek to learn from my research at http://climate-change-theory.com. Its interesting that they found such a large net positive effect despite the evidence that faster-growing trees live less long, but maybe the positive effect on growth is just that much greater. Temperature datapast and presentare fundamental in the climate change debate. There are numerous other reports which show the impact of climate change on various other sectors such as agriculture, energy, insurance and even national security. Therefore, it follows that the actual ECS should be lower than 3 C, as Lewis (2022) also found. Big or small negative or positive. Thanks. You might point them to a recent talk by one of the leading scientists in the world on this subject, Willie Soon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qyggw-x4K9I, As well as his recent paper with 25 other leading scientists How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? Nature has had the advantage of using enormous pressures and temperatures over thousands of years to produce compact, high energy sources like coal. An ongoing debate. Never have been, never will be. (I dont believe that there is plenty of distilled water down there). There are some unique aspects to the current climate change period. . They say the theory of human-caused global climate change is based on questionable measurements, faulty climate models, and misleading science. 1. I was talking measurement or transcription errors in thermometer (or thermocouple) readings. China is now the worlds top emitter of greenhouse gases, but developed countries, primarily the United States, is still mainly responsible for causing climate change after having emitted the most pollution for the longest time. . Ronald J. Rychlak, Distinguished Professor of Law and Jamie L. Whitten Chair of Law & Government, University of Mississippi School of Law, Hot Talk, Cold Science is readable to the layperson and nicely lays out the arguments. Maybe a few cents per million BTU? How do scientists know climate change is real? Not everyone is unquestioning. Stay up to date on the latest science news by signing up for our Essentials newsletter. [10], The US National Academy of Sciences issued a 1977 report titled Energy and Climate that concluded the burning of fossil fuels was increasing atmospheric CO2, and that increased CO2 was associated with a rise in global temperatures. Proper citation depends on your preferred or required style manual. The organization has also repeatedly hid scientific uncertainty, the absence of critical data, and evidence that questions or contradicts its apocalyptic prediction. . Commenters (apart from a couple like James Gorman) seemed too timid to offer a definitive answer about how to calculate uncertainty in different scenarios. And on the appropriate site. . No significant funding supports study of anything other than CO2, how dumb is that. Because 150 ppm is the lowest level at which plant life can survive. Thats the entire problem with the MASSIVE corruption of climate science peer review. [202], According to NOAAs National Climatic Data Center, 2014 was the hottest year on record across the globe since 1880 when record keeping began. Tim Benson, The Heartland Institute - Ideas that empower people, Mark Steyn vs Michael Mann, Climate Change: The Fact, Scott Denning v. Roy Spencer Debate ICCC6, Research & Commentary: Data Shows Methane Emissions in Colorado Declined Significantly Despite Large Increase in Oil Production, Research & Commentary: New Report Details How to Strengthen America, Weaken Putin, and Make the World Safer Via Increased American Energy Production, Research & Commentary: Congressional Bill Would Block Federal Infrastructure Funds from Heading to States that Have Banned Hydraulic Fracturing, Alarmists Repackage Myth of Overpopulation Induced Catastrophe (Guests: Pierre Desrochers and Joanna Szurmak), POLITICO Awards Putin Top Spot on Their Green 28 List. Nothing better illustrates the fact that we are dealing with a political cum religious cult rather than science where the quest for power overwhelms scientific inquiry. ", ProCon.org. Temperature reconstructions of the NH over the last 1000 to 2000 years certainly dont show anywhere near this much variability. Of course, this has a rather direct and dramatic effect on calculation of ECS. Now he with climatologists David Legates and Anthony Lupo have armed us with the 3rd revised and expanded edition of Hot Talk, Cold Science. We have already seen such unrest with the Mouvement des Gilets jaunes in France and agricultural industry protests in Europe as governments try to increase the cost of energy or force draconian reductions in animal agriculture. https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Clean-Core-prepares-for-testing-of-innovative-fuel. It is not correct to add another source, especially from a colder source. What specific findings in that paper do you take issue with? Fred Pearce The Climate Files: Javier: Most climate scientists do not research paleoclimatology, so they dont have a professional opinion on the LIA and its causes.. When that record is used to test the accuracy of models that purport to show the impact of human activity on Earths climate, the models invariably fail, revealing that human-caused CO2 emissions have little or even no influence on global temperatures. Ian D. Clark, Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Ottawa, Canada, Buy it, read it, and treasure it. The inevitable conclusion is that the world has been seriously misled by what is incorrect physics used by climatologists. Random error is is the accidental difference between observed and actual values. If that is true, then isnt a significant portion of the post 1850 warming just a reversion back to the mean just a natural rebound? They all work to tip the Earths energy balance by trapping more heat. Objectivelycombining climate sensitivity evidence. The differences in temperatures between all records which are approximately a century apart were determined, after any trends in the data had been removed. 9 Be3 Qe7 10 Bd3 QC7 11 Bf4 f5! In Hot Talk, Cold Science, Singer examines the literature on climate change and lays out a case against the likelihood of an imminent, catastrophic global warming. The stakes are enormous. Temperatures are rising dramatically; Global Warming is Causing Cold Spells; El Nio; Urban Heat Islands Do Not Exaggerate Global Warming; Climate Change is Causing Accelerated 21st Century Surface Warming; We are in the Hottest Ever Period Due to Climate Change All rights reserved. This book is essential reading for anyone seeking to understand this problem, especially as it affects working Americans. One use of confidence limits is for rejection of hypotheses before they become too formalized. And it can be costly in that it discards the whole exercise, and worse, it leads one astray. U.S. Senate hearings drew massive attention when NASA scientist James Hansen testified that he was 99 percent sure that global warming had arrived. The most common misuse seems to me to result in invalid applications of both CLT and LOLN by invoking them when they are not appropriate. The answer to the problem is however to sum all the chances when a zero chance suddenly becomes a certainty but only after the dartboard is hit. How should policymakers respond to the possibility that greenhouse gases emitted by human activity, chiefly from the burning of fossil fuels, can lead to global warming? Native American tribes that rely on fossil fuel production across the nation reiterated their demand that the Biden administration allow them to develop the resources on their lands. Commercialisation of passively safe plug and play fast modular reactors is still more than a decade away. There are two types of error random and systemic. Geoff S. There are many types of error deliberate, random and systemic for example It is apparent that the rising of GT during solar maxima is a result of these processes., Javier, you may want to also read Judith Curry just posted If you dont have any idea about this, you really are just throwing the dice and hoping for the best. Earth can hold onto CO2 ,O2 and N Definitive answers to the big questions. Random error is is the accidental difference between observed and actual values. Figure 3: Boxplots of the CMIP6 ensemble members for each CMIP6 GCM; # represents the number of the available simulations for each GCM. They agree, for example, that human activity has increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere; and that the leading greenhouse gas is water vapor (which along with atmospheric CO2 has kept the oceans from freezing over). Standard frequentist tests of a null hypothesis based on a Gaussian observation are also unaffected by such a monotonic transformation. You claim it has correct physics. The blue vertical lines represent the temperature change measured by HadCRUT5 (infilled data), ERA5-T2m, GISTEMP v4, NOAAGlobTemp v5, and UAH-MSU-lt v6 temperature records. There are now several generations of scholars with the same pedigree. I have been reading about perpetual change in Earth system sciences for decades. The climate of the past is recorded in ice, sediments, cave formations, coral reefs and even tree rings. New York Times prediction BUST: 1995 article cited climate experts warning most of the beaches on the East Coast of the U.S. could be gone in 25 years, The New Pause Lengthens to 8 years 1 Month, The Climate Crisis Isnt What it Used to Be, Open Letter to Global Leaders assembled at COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, The Dangers of Low Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations, Increase in U.S. Wildfires Due to Climate Change, Climate Change Will Increase the Number and Severity of Tornadoes. It is an ethics situational time and priority problem. Dear Dr. Nicola Scafetta, thank you very much for your research. During nearly all of Earths history, carbon dioxide concentration was at many multiples of our current level, averaging 2,600 ppm, or 6.5 times our current measurement. In the fall of 2008, 17 percent of people did not believe in global warming. It will take you about three hours to study dozens of pages in my seven papers wherein, as you could have guessed, you will find the relevant physics, and there is a AU $10,000 reward for the first to prove me wrong about the heat creep process and the fact that water vapor cools rather than warms the surface. In the context of most of these comments it is a broad catch all term that can mean little warming or significant warming. I dont know how much natural variability there is, though. Yes, but to any elite former journalists who happen to notice this work (most wont be able to read it and actually understand it), it is obvious that these results are disinformation and need to be blocked by our malefactors of great wealth at Twitter, Fakebook, and Gooooogle. However, an increasing frequency of such extreme weather events can be another indication that climate change is in fact a reality. The gap between temperature observations and model estimates raises a key question: Why does CO2 appear to no longer affect the climate? For instance, while all temperature data show a warming below 0.6 C, all GCM averages from the medium and high ECS group forecast a warming over 0.6 C up to 1.3 C. Joshua was wrong. . Surely there will be some takers. Which was that you were wrong. In this complex and seemingly never-ending debate, there is now an increasing number of scientists and other observers who say researchers and policymakers need to move on, to respond to the Earth's reactions to global warming instead of still debating whether or not it is a reality. There is NO +33C greenhouse enhancement on the Earths mean surface temperature. https://cen.acs.org/environment/pollution/nuclear-waste-pilesscientists-seek-best/98/i12#. Thats a HUGE number, hardly insignificant. Like the Swiss people that Javier wrote of above. This claim does not appear to have any evidence behind it, aside from using questionable climate models that conjure future catastrophic warming that is unlikely to occur. This was caused by a windfall of money, obviously. The answer is that we would be in a very dark place indeed. Just an observation. In fact, at the end of the last ice age, carbon dioxide reached the dangerously low level of 182 ppm, thought to be the lowest since the Pre-Cambrian time period more than 600 million years ago. If you go to the link, down the ant-trail of measurements you may notice small kinks spaced about 1470 ( which equals 9803/2, 980 being the Eddy cycle, that peaked at 173ce). Mercury..325,83 K..340 K Temperature data showing rapid warming in the past few decades, the latest data going up to 2021. [129] When Keeling began his measurements, atmospheric CO2 levels stood at 315 parts per million (ppm). Jonathon Moseley, American Thinker, flashy (apparently widely distributed) Michael E. Mann, Material on this website is copyright 2006-2022, by Anthony Watts, and may not be stored or archived separately, rebroadcast, or republished without written permission. Roger A. Pielke, Sr., Professor of Atmospheric Science and Senior Research Scientist, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Colorado State University, For those who believe that the collapse of the Kyoto summit would herald an environmental disaster, we suggest an antidote: a book called Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warmings Unfinished Debate, by S. Fred Singer (Independent Institute, Oakland, California). It is loaded with facts and technical details but it is written in a manner that is accessible to the non-expert. Even though I appear to be playing Climate Ball. But, AGW is in the eye of the beholder, so the severity can be anything. The Max Planck principle enters in effect and science advances a funeral at a time. Increasing Strength and Frequency of Hurricanes? carbon dioxide. 3. The lowest region in the planets atmosphere is called the troposphere and there is a fairly uniform rate of cooling with increasing altitude. There are no such things as chaotic systems, even most random number generators spit out the same random numbers list if the same initial seed is used. The date was September 30th 1.49 am dpy comment And there has been some pseudo-scientific pushback from some climate scientists who dont know anything about biology.. Becoming familiar with the voluminous literature and data that point to no catastrophic conditions in the next century or two has allowed me to do that. Amazing. The references and index are both quite thoroughly done. In 2008, the organization published a report titled "Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate." Is climate change harming Earths biosphere and human well-being? Somewhere Over the Rainbow Because Climate Change! The beauty is theres no shortage of fuel. The good way to prove the matter is by an example. 2020. 2. build secure infrastructure for prosperous and resilient communities, That changes a lot of how to view proxies. Environ Res Lett 15:1040b4. Tsat.mean.earth = 288 K, measured by satellites. If you only are forthright on attack, good CB players can recognize that your smokescreens indicate defensiveness. Science and embraced by most governments worldwide. Dr. Singer passed away in 2020, but not before expanding and updating his much-discussed book with assistance from climatologist David R. Legates (University of Delaware) and atmospheric scientist Anthony R. Lupo (University of Missouri). Perhaps thats why virtually none of the truly great climate scientists who really know what they are talking about and document it with hundreds and hundreds of seminal studies and papers over decades call themselves climate scientists! Recommended reading for all over 6,000 Abstract views so far: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2884148. Lewis and Koonin provide reassurance on this subject. Would that my words could do the speaking for me. I feel perfectly safe and comfortable about all of them at the time and now. Model projections are at the heart of climate science, the alleged climate crisis and the ridiculous net zero policies being adopted by governments at huge cost to their citizens. The moon and the earth differ in their innate energy, earth having a larger and hotter core and energy bulk. At the conference, 98 speakers including PhD climate scientists from major universities argued that global warming was most likely a natural event. [199], Predictions about how climate changes would affect civilization ranged from a Department of Defense report [154] detailing catastrophic weather events and a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earths environment, to an Oregon Institute of Science and Health report detailing an increasingly lush environment of plants and animals. [155], The question of how climate change impacts extreme weather came to the forefront of public debate when wildfires raged across Australia for 240 days from 2019 through early 2020. The example I have given is of a tipping point. Sensitive dependence and structural instability are humbling twin properties for chaotic It is well known in mathematics and physics that one does very poorly in predicting the detailed future time dependence of such a system. However, one can disagree with your deflection to tipping points. Honour my commitments. [149] In response, the US EPA announced in 2009 that greenhouse gases threaten public health and are the primary driver of climate change. [150] In its June 23, 2014 decision in Utility Air Regulatory Group v. EPA, the US Supreme Court upheld the EPAs authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from stationary sources such as power plants.
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